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With both situated in the lower echelons of the Premier League table, Southampton and Newcastle’s Premier League clash this Saturday already feels like an encounter of grave significance. If Cardiff and Huddersfield fill the bottom two places as expected, it could well be one of these two clubs that joins then in the drop zone come the end of May.

Accordingly, the 3pm at St. Mary’s qualifies as the first relegation six-pointer of the season, and these sides enter the fixture amid eerily similar form. While Saints are four points and five places better off in the Premier League table, both teams have scored six and conceded 14 so far this term.

Confidence is low, form is even worse and the pressure’s certainly building, so who’ll come out on top in this one? We don’t have the powers to predict the result, but here’s everything you need to know ahead of Southampton vs Newcastle…

What History Tells Us

At first glance, there isn’t really much to choose between the teams from their previous 34 meetings in the Premier League. In fact, they’re separated by just three wins, one goal and one clean sheet all in Southampton’s favour, albeit the south coast outfit incurring two red cards to the Magpies’ none.

But there is one statistic here that really stands out – Newcastle’s abysmal record at St. Mary’s. From 17 ventures there to date, perhaps because it’s such a long trip across the country, Saturday’s visitors have left with all three points just once. Southampton, meanwhile, have failed to win just four of the remaining 16 encounters.

Managerial Head-to-Head

While Southampton may boast the better head-to-head record historically, the situation is completely flipped between the two dugouts. From their 13 skirmishes to date, across all clubs and competitions, Mark Hughes has managed to beat Rafa Benitez a mere once, compared to six victories in the Spaniard’s favour. That’s despite the differences in terms of goals and clean sheets being far less considerable, although the gap widens once again when looking at silverware – seven for Benitez, whereas the Welshman continues to wait for his first in club football.

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And while a large chunk of the record harks back to Benitez’s time at Liverpool when he was privy to a high-quality team, that was actually when Hughes recorded his only victory over the former Anfield boss, sealing a win for Blackburn back in 2006. In the seven meeting since, spanning combined spells with Manchester City, Newcastle and Stoke, Benitez has had Hughes’ number.

Referee Influence – Chris Kavanagh

Chris Kavanagh is one of the Premier League’s younger referees at the age of 33, which perhaps explains why there are some discrepancies in his returns so far this season. While he’s ranked decisively lower-mid table from the 17 referees to work in the top flight this term for fouls per match and fouls per tackle, he moves up into the top half for penalties and yellow cards – the decisions that can really decide games. Perhaps that will balance out as the season goes on, but his ranking for spot kicks is particularly high so both teams will need to be wary of how they behave in the box this weekend.

Kavanagh’s other curiosity is the high percentage of games he’s overseen this season that have ended in away wins, three from six. Only three referees to officiate more than one Premier League game in 2018/19 currently have a higher ratio.

Team News

Southampton enter this game with pretty much a clean bill of health – even slight doubt Mario Lemina is expected to start after jarring his knee – and after being surprisingly positive about the scoreless draw at Bournemouth last weekend, we’re expecting Hughes to stick with almost exactly the same lineup.

The only exception comes in attack as the Welsh gaffer continues to try and find a solution to his side’s profligacy. As Hughes himself mentioned in the buildup, Southampton are actually fifth for efforts at goal this season – they just haven’t been able to put them away with the exception of Danny Ings, the club’s top scorer in the Premier League on three goals.

So the crucial question is who partners the summer arrival from Liverpool. After failing to make any kind of impact against the Cherries last time out, we’re tipping Charlie Austin to be dropped for Shane Long. The Irishman isn’t amongst the goals either, but his ability to stretch defences should create the space Ings likes to occupy between the backline and the midfield.

It’s a similar story for Newcastle regarding starting XI changes, with just one anticipated at the tip of the attack. Joselu is by no means a popular figure on Tyneside but he’s the Magpies’ top scorer this season and should give much more of a presence than summer signing Yoshinori Muto, which will be of real importance away from home. In an ideal world, Salomon Rondon would be the man providing it, but he may only be fit enough to feature from the bench.

Elsewhere, Federico Fernandez looks set to continue partnering Jamaal Lascelles at the back, with Florian Lejeune a long-term absentee and Ciaran Clark only just coming back from a recent layoff.

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